The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have predicted another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, with six to ten hurricanes.
The season begins June 1 and lasts until November 30. An average season usually produces seven hurricanes, and peaks are in August and September. If predictions come true, it will be a record of the sixth consecutive year of extraordinary activity.
Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said 13 to 20 storms could also develop. This number contains tropical storms, with wind speeds of 39 km / h or higher. Storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 km per hour.
NOAA stated that of the predicted hurricanes, three to five could be large, which can pack wind speeds of 111 km / h or higher.
“Forecasted warmer-than-average surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an improved West African monsoon are likely to be factored in this year’s overall activity,” said Matthew Rosencrans, chief executive of the hurricane, at NOAA’s Climate Forecasting Center.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are in the neutral phase, and La Niña may return later in the hurricane season. “ENSO-neutral and La Niña support the conditions associated with the ongoing era of high activity,” Rosencrans said.
El Niño, a natural warming ocean water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. The opposite, La Niña, a cooling of the same water, usually increases the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
Forecasts include storms sweeping the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Last year, NOAA predicted that 13 to 19 named tropical storms, of which six to ten were predicted to be hurricanes. In all, a record 30 storms were reported, including 14 hurricanes, seven of which were major hurricanes.