Population Crisis in China: Experts concerned as numbers plummet for 2nd consecutive year

China has registered a significant drop in its population for the second consecutive year as the country’s population fell by 2 million in 2023. This drastic shift has been attributed to a significant drop in the birth rate for the 7th consecutive year, coupled with the increased death rate that China saw due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as stated by the government on Wednesday.

Experts stated that the outbreak of COVID-19 and its subsequent spread between December 2022 and February 2023 had a massive effect on the nation’s demographic. The issue was compounded by the aging population of the nation, which now has more older citizens than young ones, resulting in a cascading drop in the population of China year on year.

This is evident from the figures associated with the death rate, which rose by a staggering 690,000, hitting the 11.1 million mark in the previous year.

This is seen as the primary reason behind China dropping to second place on the list of the most populated countries in the world in 2023, behind India, which has now taken the top spot.

China has been aware of the societal and economic effects that a drastic drop in the population would have on the nation for a long time. This prompted the government to alter the one-child policy, allowing for 3 children per family while also introducing incentives for citizens to have more children.

Despite these measures, women in China continue to have fewer children, which is down to both societal reasons and a big dip in the fertility rates of the population.

The average life expectancy of China has gone up as well, just as it has in many other nations around the world. Coupled with the falling birth rate, this has led to the population of China growing older on average, year by year.

This means that the nation has more older people who are retired or lack productivity, while the younger population, which spurs productivity and economic growth, continues to drop. As a result, the nation has to divert a significant amount of its resources to support its older population while the younger population, which is responsible for accumulating these resources, continues to fade.

Due to these pressures, the nation is slowly but surely heading towards economic stagnation and decline. The most alarming revelation by experts is that even if the fertility rates begin to peak once more, thus bringing the birth rate up, the nation will still experience a population decline for decades.

Former Executive Vice President of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Zuo Xuejin, is an imminent demographer in the region. His estimates have revealed that by 2050, the portion of China’s population which falls with in the 65 or older bracket could double, crossing the 30% mark with alarming ease.

In light of these developments, the government of China has started taking steps for the benefit of the ever-expanding older segment of the population. To this end, the government gave citizens guidelines to help prop up a ‘silver economy’, while improving the quality of life of older citizens.

This includes encouraging the development of clothing, food and other products suitable for older people, cracking down on scams that target the elderly, expanding nursing care and setting up more geriatric hospitals.

In the previous year, China saw a double digit drop in the birth rate, which rang alarm bells in the minds of many demographers in the nation. According to the most recent figures, China has seen a 5.6% drop in the birth rate, which amounts to roughly 540,000 fewer children being born.

In comparison to 2016, the 9 million children born in 2023 amount to half the number, which is less than ideal for a nation with the economic scope and needs of China.

It is a well-known fact that the Chinese Communist Party’s demographic numbers often lack accuracy, which is why many experts believe the situation could be worse when the country conducts its next complete census, which is undertaken once every 10 years.

The issue stems from the ill advised one child policy that China enforced to control its population. The scheme has since seen alterations in the period between 2014 to 2016 and now allows families to have 3 children. Having said that, the change has had little effect on the ills of the one child policy which has impacted the nation in a profound manner, limiting its ability to recover.

The situation is so dire in China that local governments in the nation are now offering financial incentives to people to make them have more children.

One example of this comes from a province in the inner Mongolia region, where authorities are offering payments of 2,000 yuan ($280) for a second child and 5,000 yuan ($700) for a third. In fact, employers have also been told to give an extra 60 and 90 days of paid maternity leave for the second and third child respectively.

President Xi Jinping himself, addressed the issue while conversing with the leadership of the All-China Women’s Federation in October 2023.

He instructed the organisation to focus on educating and guiding the nation on marriage, parenthood and family. The organisation is also expected to promote policies which focus on supporting parenthood.

In a statement regarding the matter, he stated the following, “We must tell good stories about family customs, guide women to play a unique role in promoting the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation and create a new culture of family civilization.”

The nation’s official age for retirement is 60 for men and 50 or 55 for women, which limits their ability to act as contributors to the economy. While this section of the population continues to rise, the working-age population, aged between 16-59, fell to 61% of the total population.

One must remember that there are no reliable figures with regard to the people who lost their lives after China rolled back its ‘zero-Covid’ policy in December of 2022, leading to a sharp spike in COVID-19 related deaths.

Conservative estimates made by reputable sources say the number could be between 1.4 to 1.9 million, while the Chinese Communist Party continues to say that the number stands at a paltry 80,000.

Even though the effects of the pandemic are waning and China is expected to have more children this year as it celebrates the year of the dragon, which is meant to be an auspicious time to have children, Yuan Xin, a professor at Nankai University and vice-president of the China Population Association, stated that the downward spiral that China is on, will continue for a long time, becoming an inherent characteristic of the nation.