Guyana’s Ministry of Finance have posted economic growth predictions of 28.2 per cent this year with the non-oil sector growing by 9.3 per cent, according to the mid-year report. The report also delineates growth in overall real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at 59.5 per cent in the first half of the year, with the non-oil economy growing by 12.3 per cent.
The agriculture, forestry and fishing industries expanded by roughly 7.6 per cent in the first six months of the year, with growth observed for all sub-sectors, particularly in rice, livestock, fishing, forestry and sugar.
Additionally, the sugar industry grew by 30. 1 per cent when compared with the first half of 2022 with the full-year projection maintained at 29.3 per cent, while the rice industry grew by an estimated 3.2 per cent in the first half of 2023 and a revised growth rate of 7.4 per cent for the entire year.
The rest of the crop sectors have been clubbed together in the report and have grown by 9.4 per cent in the first half, with a revised growth rate projection of 4.9 per cent for 2023.
With regards to the livestock industry, an estimated expansion of 4.7 per cent in the first half of the year and is now expected to grow by 10.4 per cent for the rest of the year. The forestry industry is estimated to have grown by 4.5 per cent and is expected to grow by a further 4 per cent for the year.
The fishing industry posted an expansion by 9.9 per cent in the first half and a further growth of 8.4 percent is expected by the end of 2023.
The mining and quarrying industries have posted estimated growth by 89.9 per cent in the first half of the year, driven due to significant growth in petroleum and other mining industries.
The petroleum sub-sector alone grew by 98.4 per cent, as 68.7 million barrels of oil were produced in the first six months of this year. The industry is now projected to grow by 39.6 per cent for the entire year.
The industry of sand, stones, diamonds and manganese has estimated to have grown by 45.2 per cent in the first half, attributed by greater activity in the construction sector. This industry is expected to grow by 17.1 per cent in 2023.
The report also suggests that the manufacturing is showing estimated growth rates of 17.7 per cent in the first half, mostly triggered by increases in the manufacturing of wood products, fabricated metal products, non-metallic products, paints, and plastic products. The sector is now projected to grow by 7.8 per cent this year.
The services sector is also showing positive signs as it is estimated to have expanded by 9.1 per cent, driven largely by growth in administrative and support services and wholesale and retail trade and repairs. The overall 2023 growth rate for services is now 7.8 per cent.
With regards to the construction sector, a substantial growth rate of 44.1 per cent in the first half, reflecting large growth in the Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP) and intensified private construction. The sector is now expected to grow by 26.9 per cent in 2023.
A deficit of US$196.4 million at the end of the first half of the year has been seen, with a small surplus on the current account and slight improvements observed on the capital account. Export receipts continue to rise, growing by 38.8 per cent to US$6,039.3 million at the end of June 2023, largely influenced by higher oil export earnings, which amounted to US$5,374.1 million in the first half of the year.
Import payments have also come out to be an important factor for the review period, having reached US$3,717.3 million, growing by 111.8 per cent over 2023. This is influenced by the importation of the Prosperity Floating, Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, which arrived in April, and have helped significantly in the import of fuel and lubricants.