CariCOF warns of extremely high temperatures during season ahead

The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), which is based in Barbados has released a forecast that states a warning El Niño event in the Pacific and near-record warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures are expected from March 2024 all the way through May 2024.

An El Nino can be described as a climate pattern characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This is the warm phase of a more complex weather phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is known to occur in the region.

The latest Caribbean Climate Outlook publication from CariCOF has warned citizens that they will be facing repeated heatwaves and higher temperatures than the average warm season. These effects could be felt as early as April of this year.

CariCOF also issued an official statement regarding these developments, “March may still be characterised by high evaporation rates and an annual peak in the frequency of short dry spells, as well as further buildup of any ongoing drought and/or with increasing wildfire potential in the far northwest and in the southeast.”

“By contrast, from April to May, rainfall intensity and shower frequency are likely to sharply rise, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts in most places, except the ABC (Aruba, Bonnaire and Curacao) Islands.”

According to CariCOF, a long-term drought has developed in Antigua, Dominica, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Kitts, Suriname northern Belize, Eastern Cuba, northern Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago and the Windward Islands, as of the 1st February, 2024.

Going by the data which the forecast is based on, long-term droughts are developing in southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, inland portions of French Guiana, northeastern and inland portions of Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, Suriname northern Suriname and could also develop in northern Belize, Central Cuba, Dominica, coastal French Guiana, northern Guyana, Tobago.