This is with the elimination of the Guianas, which will be in their long dry season until mid-November. The region can expect to be at least as wet or even wetter than usual, with the potential for a busy second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season if La Nina event re-emerges.
Cedric Van Meerbeeck, the CIMH climatologist, said that the institution has been issuing forecast reports of the hurricanes from last year. The institution said that this hurricane season would have 18 storms and 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes will be formed.
Van Meerbeeck, while speaking at the regional climate outlook forum for the wet season, informed that CIMH 7 named storms would develop in 1st parts of the season as he is having confidence in the forecast reports of the institution.
The forecast reports by the institution show high confidence in the 10 named storms during the second half of the season but medium confidence in the occurrence of 13 named storms during peak season.
Van Meerbeeck said that the strong consensus was that it would be an active season. To tell them the truth, when he looks at these forecasts, he doesn’t expect anybody to remember all those numbers, but those numbers reflect very strongly the forecast they had in May last year for the last hurricane season. So, there has been still some uncertainty, that’s why they also update those outlooks over the month. He said, noting that CIMH will update its forecast in August.
58% probability has been reported by CSU that at least one major hurricane will hit the Caribbean in 2021.