Caribbean: Eastern Caribbean Weather Updates recently shared weather updates regarding Sunday night and Monday morning. It has been informed that there are expectations that during this period, the weather will remain wet.
There will be times of Elevated Risk for Flood Hazards, as per the update shared by the Eastern Caribbean Weather Updates.
Expectedly, a robust tropical wave with a 2nd following quickly is producing areas of moderate to heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms north of Guianas. The axis is entering French Guiana, but the forward edge of moisture will quickly move into the Windwards and Trinidad late Monday.
There is broad low-mid level spin in the 1st wave, stronger at mid-levels (2nd pic), which will help produce convergence of moisture. Intermittent periods of moderate to heavy showers, rain and gusty winds will continue in Windwards, Trinidad and Tobago and spread to the Leewards, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands Tuesday to Thursday as the 2nd wave’s moisture comes in.
Models hint at further periods of heavy rainfall to end the week in the southern islands. An upper trough north of the Antilles plus remnants of Cindy will cause a deep SE flow from mid-week and by Friday, the ITCZ will shift north across Trinidad and the south Windwards, then north Windwards into Saturday as TW/trough passes.
It furthermore stated some interesting stuff on recent models to watch for next week. Hints of a low pressure forming from a tropical wave that will move off Africa Tues-Wed and move quickly at low latitude. It has shown up in Euro ensembles and others too.
In conclusion, the Eastern Caribbean Weather Updates mentioned that the low develops somewhat east of Trinidad but stays weak in the 7-10 day period. At a minimum, if it does indeed stay week, the concern is for rainfall on top of prior rainfall which looks more likely in the next 5-6 days.