TTMS presents Temperature and Rainfall outlook update for upcoming season

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) presented the 2024 Dry Season Outlook at the Fifteenth National Climate Outlook Forum on Tuesday, December 12, 2023.

The 2024 Dry Season rainfall outlook showcases strongly enhanced signals for suppression of rainfall towards drier-than-usual conditions in the first half of the season, followed by wetter-than-usual conditions for the second half of the season.

The majority of the country is expected to get a percentage of average dry season rainfall totals that span between 61 per cent and 102 per cent.

The outlook demonstrates relatively moderate to high probabilities (31%-98%) across most areas for seasonal rainfall to exceed the national dry season with an average of 412.0mm.

Notably, the probability for the totals to be in the lowest 10 per cent of all dry season rainfall totals is low (8%-27%).

The Dry Season 2024 temperature outlook demonstrates above-normal seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are likely, but at least three to seven cool nights could witness temperatures which could fall below 20.0 degrees Celsius in Trinidad and 22.0 degrees Celsius in Tobago are possible in January and February 2024.

Likely Impact

Recent rainfall in December has already positively influenced the surface of water flows, groundwater recharge and river levels. The first half of the dry season has negatively impacted the surface and groundwater recharge rates and stream flow rates.

It is forecasted that there will be a chance for bush, forest and landfill fire potential, especially from early January to March 2024. It will be reached less in April and May 2024.

Notably, this will reduce the air quality and negatively affect individuals with existing respiratory and other ailments.

Early Actions and Preparedness 

– Raise awareness on dry season agriculture pest and disease control measures, and there could be bushfire risk as well.

– There is a need to review the household water plan. Conserve, manage and store water safely and sufficiently.

– Accelerate contingency plans to mitigate the possible occurrence of landfill fires.

– Review contingency plans to control and manage dry season, which spikes in vector-borne diseases such as leptospirosis and gastroenteritis, and also dust or smoke-related respiratory ailments.

– Vulnerable communities should be sensitised to the negative impacts of the forest so that actions can be taken.