Barbados: The Barbados Meteorological Services continues to closely monitor the progress of a tropical wave located near 56W south of 15N at 12 Noon on Tuesday, 4th October 2022.
Current Situation: Overnight and during the course of the morning, deep convection increased near the centre of the mid-level circulation, located near 11N 56W. This is about 430 km (270 miles) east southeast of Barbados.
The system might remain disorganized; however, deep convective development is expected to continue over the next 12 to 24 hours, according to the weather department’s prediction.
Intensity Forecast: Conditions will be marginally favourable for some slow development throughout today as it approaches Barbados and the Windward islands. Model guidance is now suggesting that the upper-level trough will shift farther north, which should allow for some slow development of the system to continue as it passes across the region in the early hours of Wednesday.
Track Forecast: Expectedly, the system might track west to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the next 12 to 24 hours. This should bring the system into our area early tomorrow, Wednesday, 5th October 2022.
Special Note: Regardless of development, this wave could produce 2 to 3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts of 4 inches in moderate to heavy showers. Winds are currently predicted to range between 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
The department has recommended that the public stay alert over the next 12 to 24 hours or until the next update from the BMS on this system. Expectedly, the next update will be at 5 pm on Tuesday 4th October 2022 or sooner if conditions warrant.